A comforting poll result for Jacinda but let’s see how she scores with China

Newshub  breathlessly reported this week  its latest political poll from Reid Research:  “National  plunges to  its worst result  in 12 years”.

The  polling  showed  Labour  at  47.5%   and National at  41.6%, and according to  Newshub  political editor   Tova  O’Brien,  the  poll  for the first time   in its  history   put  Labour   ahead  of National.

In her  excitement  at finding   such a  dark  day for   National’s leader Simon Bridges, she  appeared  to  overlook the  Reid Research polling which recorded Labour ahead in election  year, and again in 2018.

Still,  it  wasn’t  good news  for  National.   Nor did    it  give  much cheer to    NZ  First   at  2.9%,   while    Labour’s other  coalition supporter,  the Greens,  slipped to  5.1%.

Audrey  Young in the  NZ   Herald   supplied a  more sober analysis,  contending  the  latest  poll  “may cause a  murmur in National  but is not the sort of  result   that will throw  it into  crisis or into a  coup mentality”.

She pointed out that  National falling below  Labour  is not new in  polling.  It occurred  twice  last year  in  TV1’s  Colmar Brunton sampling.

The  NZ  Herald’s  political  editor  believes there is too  much variation in the result to be sure of a  trend,  “although it makes  sense  that a party  led by a  popular leader   doing a great  job for  NZ    in Europe at the time the poll  was taken  would receive  a  decent  lift”.

Quite   whether  Ardern  made that  sort  of  impact  with her European talks  may be  seen   more  clearly   if   Brexit   leads  to  difficulties  for   NZ  either in  the UK  or  the  European  market (or perhaps  both).

And then there  is the  problem,  as the  NZ  Herald reported  in  the  same  edition,  that diplomatic links with China  have plummeted to a new low “as Prime Minister Ardern is given the cold shoulder by  Beijing”.

However  much  “kindness and compassion”  Ardern displays   in  her  contacts  with  China’s  leaders, it  may not  fix that international problem.

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4 thoughts on “A comforting poll result for Jacinda but let’s see how she scores with China

  1. Let’s face it Ardern, and her line-up of misfits will, with their socialist policies, toss NZ into fiscal chaos within the next three months. I know of many who are not investing in new plant, least of all staff, because of the forthcoming taxes of envy, driven by the most evil of Labourites, Cullen.

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  2. This poll is hard to take seriously. Here’s a government that has one fiasco after another, Kiwibuild, Sroubrek, etc, and it polls at nearly 50%. Either most of the NZ public are stupid, or easily led by the cheerleader MSM Ardern squad, or the poll is not right. I don’t believe it. Media have gone out of their way to make Bridges look like a chump. And as for the Europe trip, yes she shook hands with Prince William and Meaghan Markle, shared a stage with the Prince and Attenborough. Yet, despite how the MSM gushed about how popular she was, the truth is she was a sideshow and came away from Europe with nothing concrete in the way of trade deals or preferential treatment. The EU have said we will not get special treatment. Unfortunately, most New Zealanders believe the spin but don’t look any closer.

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      1. Actually he’s doing about as well as you’d expect any leader of the opposition, especially with the media pack constantly baying for his blood…

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