Cost of living accounts for some (maybe much) of the shrinkage in support for Labour – but is co-governance a factor, too?

Latest  polling  has  underlined  how  support  for the  government has  eroded  almost  as  fast  as inflation has hit  New Zealand  households.

Both polls  have  National  ahead  of  Labour.  The  difference  is  that the Roy Morgan poll (for  the  fifth time  in a  row)  points to  a  change of  a government  while  the  Newshub-Reid  Research sampling   has  National  only two  points  ahead  of  Labour.

This means that  even with  ACT’s  support, the Nats are still  trailing  parties  of the  Left.

But what stands  out  starkly in  both polls is  how  far Labour’s  support  has  fallen since  it  swept  the  deck in the  last  election.

Equally,  the  polling  underlines  how  well Christopher  Luxon  has  done in  re-energising National  since  he  took  on the  leadership, despite  his  relative inexperience in Parliament and  the  critical exposure   he  gets in  the  state-subsidised  mainstream media.

Here are  the  details  of  the two  poll results  (as  reported  by that expert pollster David  Farrar):

Newshub-Reid  Research

  • Labour 38.2% (-6.1% from February)
  • National 40.5% (+9.2%)
  • Greens 8.4% (-1.2%)
  • ACT 6.4% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 1.7% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • TOP 0.9%
  • Conservative 0.7%

Seats

  • Labour 48 (-17 from election)
  • National 51 (+18)
  • Greens 10 (nc)
  • ACT 8 (-2)
  • Maori 3 (+1)

Governments

  • Labour/Green 58/120
  • National/ACT 59/120
  • Labour/Green/Maori 61/120

Preferred PM

  • Jacinda Ardern 36.6% (-6.7%)
  • David Seymour 5.1% (-2.9%)
  • Christopher Luxon 23.9% (+6.1%)

Roy Morgan poll

  • Labour 33.5% (+1.5% from March)
  • National 37.5% (-0.5%)
  • Greens 10.5% (nc)
  • ACT 10.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)
  • TOP 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • New Conservatives 0.5% (nc)

Seats

  • Labour 43 (-22 from election)
  • National 49 (+16)
  • Greens 13 (+3)
  • ACT 13 (+3)
  • Maori 2 (nc)

Governments

  • Labour/Green 56/120
  • National/ACT 62/120

The polling  indicates that most  New  Zealanders   don’t  accept  the  government’s  contention  that   the inflation  they  are experiencing  is  due  almost solely  to  overseas  factors.

The Newshub  pollsters  reinforce that impression with the responses they received to the  question aout whether the  government  had done  enough to  address  the  cost of  living  crisis.  They found that 77%  or respondents believed  it  had  not.

Wage data released by Statistics New Zealand today will have brought no comfort to the Ardern team.  They show wage increases measured by the labour cost index (LCI) grew at 3 per cent in the year to the March 2022 quarter, which means wages are failing to keep up with increasing prices (up 6.9 per cent in the past year according to the consumers price index.

But  Point of Order would like public opinion to be gauged on another issue which we suspect might be niggling – if not seriously troubling – some voters.  That’s the pace with which the Ardern government is implementing its “partnership” and co-governance programme, regardless of the consequential corroding of democratic voting and accountability arrangements.

While the cost of living may well account for much of the rapid fading of Labour’s popularity, it seems co-governance has  become a  major   issue  not  only for academics and the  constitutional cognoscenti   but  also for the  wider  public.  This may well have strengthened  the  support for ACT’s David  Seymour.

Labour’s Maori caucus is likely to discourage any weakening of resolve on policies promoting partnership and co-governance.  Being seen to be doing something about the economy in general and the cost of living in particular is another matter – but a challenging one.

So let’s see if Finance  Minister Grant Robertson can pull some  miracles out  of  his  budget  bag  later  this  month  to  get Labour back  on track and into  public  favour.

One thought on “Cost of living accounts for some (maybe much) of the shrinkage in support for Labour – but is co-governance a factor, too?

  1. More than ten thousand people were motivated to make submissions to the Maori Affairs Committee last month opposing the Rotorua race-based gerrymander bill which would have set a precedent for removing equal suffrage in New Zealand. Some two thousand five hundred of them demanded the right to address the Committee on the matter, despite the news media having maintained a news blackout for weeks on virtually anything to do with it. Tamati Coffey has, inadvertently we suspect, performed a great service by raising public awareness (and arousing a good deal of anger and concern) about the government’s racist and anti-democratic “co-governance” plans, It is highly likely this has contributed to Labour’s slump, at least as much as the outrageous price of a 500g block of butter. Three Waters will only compound the decline in support for this government, no matter how Mahuta and Robertson try to spin it.

    Liked by 1 person

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