Perhaps Peters will be a kingmaker – but let’s see what happens to the Nats’ support in future polling

After   five   years of  Jacinda  Ardern    as  Prime  Minister,  a  nostalgia  for  politicians  of  another  era   is  breaking  to the  surface.  The Dominion-Post,  for  example,   rushed  on  to  the  front  page  a  news  item  headlined  “The  return  of  the  Kingmaker”,   while   the  NZ  Herald  featured   a learned  piece  by  Dr  Jarrod  Gilbert headed “Why I’d  be  pleased  to shout  Bill English  a  beer”.

And   there’s   seldom  a  week  when  John  Key  or  Helen  Clark  don’t  get  a  mention,  either to recall their  deeds  or  tap into their  political  skills.

So who’s  “the  kingmaker”   the  Dom-Post  thinks  is  on  the  way  back?

Why,  none  other  Winston  Peters.   The  old  lion, who  has  been  resting  in  his  lair  in  Northland, is  apparently  ready  to re-emerge on   to  the  political  stage, judging   by the  newspaper’s headline.

The Dominion Post breathlessly reports:

“A new political poll has NZ First leader Winston Peters once again in the kingmaker position, reclaiming a place in Parliament and deciding the next Government.

“A Horizon Research poll, provided exclusively to Stuff, showed NZ First – fresh off the back of holding a party conference and a year out from the election – had crossed the vital 5% threshold of party vote required to enter Parliament, with 6.75% support.

“Labour had an edge on National, however neither had enough support to govern with their respective traditional coalition partners, Green and ACT. If the 2023 election returned this poll’s outcome, Peters would be the deciding factor.

“Between the major parties the contest is close. Labour is ahead of National in large and regional cities and close to National in small towns and rural areas,” said Graeme Colman​, Horizon Research’s principal.

“If New Zealand First should not achieve an electoral seat or 5% of the vote, then the contest is very close.”

Point  of  Order  recalls  Colman  in  an  earlier  political life  serving  the  distinguished  Labour  politician  Mike  Moore   as an  adviser.

This  latest  poll  result  is  certainly   worth  a  headline,  although there  may  be  some  who  find  it  contrasts  with  other  recent  polling, in  that  it  shows National’s support  below  30%.

The  Hamilton West  by-election  may  provide  a  better  gauge  of just  where   the  two  main  parties  stand.  That by-election  will attract  more  interest  than  most  of  its  predecessors,  because  in 2020  it  supplied  the then  Labour  candidate.  Dr  Gaurav Sharma.   with a  6000-plus  majority after  being  held  by  National’s  Tim  MacIndoe.

Meanwhile   just  in  case   Bill  English hasn’t   heard  that  a  beer  is  waiting   for  him,  Point  of  Order  would  be  pleased  to  advise  him   of  it.  Dr  Gilbert met  him  in  2015   when English  was  working  up  an  idea of   a  social  investment model.

“I liked  English’s  ideas  then,  and  I’m  pleased  the National  Party  is  attempting  to  breathe life  back into  them  now”.

Dr  Gilbert’s  stamp  of  approval  is the  kind  of  endorsement  that is likely to encourage  the  National  Party  leadership  to  go  hard  on  that  bit  of  policy.

Who  knows?  It  could  get  National nudges in  front  of  Labour,  when   Horizon does  its  next  poll.

2 thoughts on “Perhaps Peters will be a kingmaker – but let’s see what happens to the Nats’ support in future polling

  1. The electoral bribery season has started, bus drivers being the first beneficiaries, students to follow, the anyones guess what target group will be next.
    Captive and biased polls like Horizon polls come (almost) into the category of disinformation. No matter how much such pollsters try and skew the result to fit the narrative, the reality is that this government is the most detested and untrustworthy in the eyes of the electorate.

    Liked by 1 person

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