Robertson relishes responding to patsy questions and enthusing about the economic outlook – but is he missing some grim realities?

Grant  Robertson,  perennially  exuberant  as  finance  minister  when  it  comes  to telling  the  country  how  well  the  government  is  handling  the  economy,  has  been in  top  form on  the  subject in  Parliament  in   recent  days.

Whether  the  same   buoyancy is  being  felt in  every  sector  of the  economy  could be  another  story.

But here’s  how  Robertson  was  responding  in  the  House  this  week.

On  Tuesday  he  was  saying the government’s efforts to secure  the  economic recovery have been reflected in the latest measure of the country’s economic health. Statistics New Zealand reported last week that GDP rose by 1.6% for the March 2021 quarter, exceeding the expectations of even the most optimistic commentators.

“New Zealanders confidence in the recovery saw a boost in retail spending, particularly on big ticket household items, hospitality, and holiday accommodation. Importantly, activity in the construction sector returned to near record levels, while business investment in plant and machinery jumped by over 15 percent. The higher COVID-19 alert levels during the quarter only had a limited impact on the economy thanks to the quick response which provided cash flow and confidence. Quarterly activity in March has now exceeded the December 2019 quarter pre-pandemic level.

“Nevertheless, the data does show the volatility that NZ has to deal with during the pandemic. This 1.6% increase followed a 1% decline in the December quarter and a record 14.1% increase in the September quarter”.

Ardern is skipper and Robertson is in charge of the engine room as the govt sets sail on a clear course with a new crew

PM  Jacinda  Ardern, conceding the next three years will be very challenging for NZ, has two overarching priorities  for  her  government: to drive the economic recovery from Covid-19, and to continue the health response to keep NZers safe from the virus.

“In what will be a difficult environment it’s critical we have our most experienced ministers leading the ongoing Covid response to keep New Zealanders safe from the virus and to accelerate our plan for economic recovery.       

Sensibly, then,  she  has   recognised  the  skills  of   Grant Robertson  who  has  been  given   the  task  of  co-ordinating  the  drive to  regain  economic growth.  Besides  keeping the  Finance  portfolio    Robertson becomes  Minister  of  Infrastructure. And  his  seniority is  reinforced    with the  role, too, of  Deputy Prime Minister—a  role  which he had previously filled  in all but  name.

Labour’s recovery plan includes $42bn of infrastructure investment that will create jobs and ensure the economic recovery.   It    also  has  to   deliver much needed improvements to  roads and public transport, to schools, hospitals and housing, while also continuing to support the regions.

Ardern,  in  effect,  will be  the  captain  on   the  bridge  while  Robertson  is in  charge  of the  engine-room.

Food producers can do without the green shackles when they are driving the post-virus economic recovery

What’s  to   celebrate in the  wake of   the crushing  blow  to   the  economy  delivered   by the Covid-19   pandemic?

Certainly it’s a relief    NZ  has emerged  less  scarred  than other  countries.  Whether the country absorbed   more   economic  pain  than  was necessary will be   debated fiercely.

As   ministers   begin  the  search  to  fill  the economic hole left  by the  collapse of the  tourist industry  and  by  permanent  damage – perhaps –  to sectors like international education,  PM  Jacinda  Ardern  says  she  wants “specific” and “ specially designed” initiatives for  different  industries.

Finance  Minister  Grant  Robertson,  in  talking  of  the  government’s  “strong recovery plan”,   says all ministers have been tasked  with reaching out  to their sector to help develop this plan. Deputy  PM  Winston Peters believes  the  fragility of the highly  interconnected  global  economy has been exposed, and  NZ  must become more  self-reliant.

Resuscitating a virus-ravaged economy – the answer lies in the soil and the exports it generates

Westpac is forecasting 200,000 jobs will be lost in NZ as a result of the response to the coronavirus pandemic.  Chief economist Dominick Stephens estimates economic activity during the four week lock-down would decline by a third, despite the government and the Reserve Bank having “done a lot to calm financial markets”.

Stephens said his feeling was that GDP in the three months to June would fall by more than 10%— “which is completely unprecedented in our lifetimes”.

The  Westpac  diagnosis  reinforces  the argument  advanced  by  Point of   Order   in  one of  its most intently  read  posts:  “After the lock-down the  economy’s  recovery  will be  dependent on dairy farmers and  their  milk”.

This post  stressed  that  when the   time   comes for the   government to  start  planning  how the  economy   can recover,   it  should be   working hard   to ensure  the  dairy  industry,  along with other  key  pillars of the  primary  sector,  gets  every encouragement to  increase   production.

Many of those who  read  the post  agreed that the  volume  of criticism  dairy farmers  had to  absorb  because  of the methane  emissions of their herds  and  the dirtying of  rivers  and streams  reached    absurd  levels and  affected  industry  morale.