Bryce Edwards: Can NZ First once again fill the vacuum at the centre of politics

DR BRYCE EDWARDS,  director of the Democracy Project, looks into support for New Zealand First in opinion polls, the politicking of Winston Peters and the party’s 2023 general election prospects.  

They don’t get much media coverage at the moment, but the New Zealand First party could be central to the next year in politics and determine the shape of the next government.
 
The latest opinion survey out yesterday – leaked from Labour-aligned pollsters Talbot-Mills – has New Zealand First on 4.4 per cent. The party has been edging up in the polls all year. The last few Kantar-1News polls have had the party on 3 per cent.
 
This level of support is relatively high for the party, which tends to do poorly between election years and then have a surge of support during campaigns. So, it’s certainly not out of the question that Winston Peters’ party could soon register 5 per cent and suddenly become a real force in next year’s election.
 
This would change everything.

Who said Shane Jones was all washed-up? Three Waters (and co-governance) have flushed him back into politicking

Shane  Jones — remember  him?- — has  re-emerged  into public life and thrown a  hand grenade  at  the  Labour  government on  its  Three Waters  policy.  He  has  done  so  in  a  think-piece    for  the  op-ed  page  in  the  NZ  Herald  at a  time  when the  Ardern  government thought  it  had  recaptured  the  high ground  in  the nation’s politics, with  its  measures  to  take  the sting   out  of  inflation.

But  Jones’ intervention has  widened   the  battleground.

The  implications, separately,  are  interesting.  Does it  foreshadow  Jones, a  close ally  of  NZ  First  leader Winston Peters,  stepping  back  into  politics?  Could  it  be that  Jones  senses  that here is  the  issue   that could revive  NZ First  from  its  moribund  state?

Of  course, Jones  may  have  compiled  his explosive  piece  on  his  own initiative,  but  as  a  minister  in  the  Labour-NZ  First coalition  from 2017 to 2020,  he   and Winston Peters   always  worked  very  closely  together.  It  was  as if  they  were  soul-mates:   each  had the  gift  of  hitting   a  political nerve.

This  is  the  one  Jones played   on  in   his  NZ  Herald  article:

Oh dear – ECan has dug up a bad Bill (that was buried in 2019) to spare Ngai Tahu the bother of winning votes at the ballot box

Legislation to entrench Ngai Tahu representatives on Environment Canterbury – these would be  guaranteed appointments, to spare them the bother of pitching for popular support – failed to pass its first reading in Parliament in 2019.

On that occasion,  New Zealand First’s Shane Jones featured in scuttling a bill which would have entitled Ngai Tahu to appoint two representatives to sit with elected councillors after the local elections later that year.

It seemed that was the end of a bad Bill – but hey:  a few weeks ago the regional council announced it was again promoting a Bill that will provide “for mana whenua representation around the Council table”, by empowering Te Rūnanga o Ngāi Tahu to appoint up to two members of the Council. This will be in addition to the elected members.

The aim – in other words – is not necessarily to bat for Maori generally.  It’s to guarantee two decision-making seats at the council table for “mana whenua”, or the local tribal elite.

Climate could provide Peters and his party with a platform for warming voters and bouncing back at the next election

Peters  is   back,  the  headlines  shouted.

Well,  not  quite.  Winston Peters  may  have  stepped  into  the political  limelight  again, after  a  spell  in political  darkness – but he  and  his  party  are a  long  way  from  Parliament.   And  even  though  he  looks  fit  and  well,   can he – at the age of 76 –  find  the  spark  which  will fire  up  the  NZ  First  engine  again?

His  disciple,  Shane Jones,  is  firmly  convinced  he  can.  Furthermore, Jones believes the  party can forge a  new  crusade  out  of  the  “perfidy”  of  what  the Climate  Change  Commission is  doing  to  NZ.

Jones   sees  the  commissioners  as  “ideological  termites”,  who  hold  sway  over  the  government  with  “mad  ideas”  of the sort that could  required us all as if we  are  all  going to  ride  bikes

Jones  cites the  example  of 10,000 bikers in  Birkenhead  exerting  their power  on the  government  to build a bridge  for them over  the Auckland  harbour.

Another gin maker is given an expansionary tonic with help from the PGF

The government is pumping more public money into the booze business.    

The beneficiary of an $800,000 loan is BeGin Distilling, in New Plymouth, which makes Juno gin.  It is borrowing the money to expand its operations, employ more staff and provide greater opportunities for local farmers.

In other words, the Ardern Government is borrowing to lend money to BeGin and other businesses which become the recipients of loans through an array of developmental programmes.

The Reefton Distillery Co last week became the recipient of a $928,000 loan for its expansion.  

 The South Taranaki museum,  and a Pasifika building firm will benefit, too, from Government investments totalling more than $1 million announced yesterday by Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says.

$1.69m goes to Maori landowners for tree planting (and the govt will be hoping for a harvest of votes)

The Government has made another pitch for the Maori vote (presumably with borrowed money) by dipping into the One Billion Trees trough.

It has proclaimed it is backing Maori landowners with this contribution to their wellbeing (and the environment’s) and it is fair to suppose it would appreciate the landowners backing it in return on election day.

Whether such backing might be  expressed in electoral support for Labour or New Zealand First is a matter for conjecture, but the announcement was made by Forestry Minister Shane Jones, a prominent and generous benefactor from the New Zealand First side of the coalition.

He announced up to $1.69 million will be provided through the One Billion Trees programme to Māori landowners to make their land more productive through the planting of forests, “both native and exotic”, and improve economic and environmental outcomes.

Around 1.5 million ha of land in New Zealand is in Māori ownership, Jones pointed out, but large tracts are returning little direct commercial value to Māori landowners, “nor much in the way of positive climate, soil, water or biodiversity outcomes”.

So what have the owners done to this land to rob it of positive climate, soil, water or biodiversity outcomes? Or did the land never generate much of those environmental benefits?

Fingers crossed about the border being made Covid-tight but let’s salute the further assault on Taumurunui’s housing shortage

Our daily check with the Beehive website revealed nothing new until this afternoon, and then we found just one new announcement.

It came from – guess who?

Yep.  Shane Jones was again demonstrating his munificence, providing $7.78 million for the Ruapehu District Council to “jump-start” its Housing Options programme.

But a statement with much greater national significance had been made by Housing Minister Megan Woods and despatched to the Point of  Order  email intray.

Woods advised us the government is reducing its reliance on private security guards and increasing its use of Defence Force personnel, especially in the highest risk facilities, to fortify the Managed Isolation and Quarantine System and maritime border and further bolster (we hope) protections against community COVID-19 spread.    

The defence personnel will staff higher-risk security areas such as entry and exit points and public areas.

But the private sector isn’t being forsaken. Woods said:

Jones mucks in with a $19.5m loan to help with the mushrooming of a Te Mata company

Commercial mushroom growers can be a feisty bunch, a Newsroom report in 2017 suggests. We wonder, therefore, how rival companies will respond to the Government’s favouring one of their number with a $19.5 million loan to increase its production (to their detriment in the marketplace, we imagine).

In a report which dealt with an industry row over the importing of plant manure from Europe that contained traces of horse and chicken poo, Newsroom observed:

The deeper you dig into this murky world of manure, the more you find a tale of intrigue involving anti-competitive behaviour, a government department under threat of a judicial review now dragging its heels on an import licence it’s already granted and revoked,  job losses, and worse – production stalled on tonnes of high-quality super-food vegetables that could drive mushroom prices down and become a thriving export industry. But there is also a deep-seated fear from a wide range of New Zealand farmers and food producers who know that it doesn’t take much of a bio-security slip-up to devastate an industry. 

Mercer Mushrooms was importing substrate – or mushroom compost – from The Netherlands. To get the substrate into New Zealand Mercer had persuaded the Ministry for Primary Industries to re-write the import laws on this product.

Northland doesn’t reject the millions Jones brings to his home patch – but polls suggests it will reject him

Latest from the Beehive

Here’s hoping the hundreds of millions of dollars pumped into Northland from the Provincial Growth Fund and other government programmes do much more to promote the region’s economic and social wellbeing than they are doing to enhance Shane Jones’ election prospects.

He is bound to be disappointed.  Besides channelling substantial loans and grants into his home patch, Jones has staunchly championed the region in other ways – by promoting the proposal to move Auckland’s port to Whangarei, for example.

But a new Q+A/Colmar Brunton poll suggests Jones is running a distant-third behind the incumbent National MP Matt King and Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime.  It showed King on 46 per cent support for the seat vote, Prime on 31 per cent, and Jones on 15 per cent.

Labour was ahead in the party vote within the electorate at 41 per cent, with National not far behind at 38 per cent, ACT next at 8 per cent, and NZ First at 7 per cent.

How much more money (we wonder) would make Jones a shoo-in?

Hawke’s Bay airport gets a Crown loan whereas an innovation park in Northland gets a PGF investment (much more money, too)

Latest from the Beehive – 

While National’s Todd Muller was thinking hard about his future as leader, the government was getting on with the job of governing and redistributing taxpayers’ money.

At least, we presume that’s what Muller was doing .  He was also giving a highly instructive  lesson in how to keep a secret and prevent leaks – it’s done by not telling anybody.

Shane Jones, in contrast, wanted to the whole world  (the voters of Northland, at least) to hear his news that more millions are being poured into his home patch.

Hawke’s Bay was the beneficiary of a favourable funding decision, too, but in its case the money is a loan.  In Northland it’s an “investment”.

It’s not immaterial, furthermore, that in the Hawke’s Bay case the money is being loaned to a company in which the government is the major shareholder.

Deputy PM Winston Peters and Finance Minister Grant Robertson announced the Crown will lend money to Hawke’s Bay Airport for the same reasons inevitably trundled out these days to justify government funding decisions – the loan is  “to ensure it can trade through COVID-19 economic impacts, support the region’s recovery and protect up to 200 jobs”.

The Crown has a 50 per cent shareholding in Hawke’s Bay Airport Limited; Napier City Council holds 26 per cent and Hastings District Council 24 per cent.

The airport requires financial support of up to $9 million due to reduced passenger numbers and revenue due to COVID-19. The Crown will loan up to $4.5 million on commercial terms, while the councils provide up to a further $4.5 million.

“It’s important that we retain an important regional asset which will enable the Hawke’s Bay to stay connected and support the recovery of the domestic tourism and aviation sectors,” Winston Peters said.

“Hawke’s Bay Airport experienced a significant drop in revenue due to COVID-19. The request was made to shareholders to provide financial support to ensure the airport remained viable and to allow completion of the terminal redevelopment, an important part of the airport expansion project, which was started before the onset of COVID-19.”

Grant Robertson said it was appropriate for the Crown – as the major shareholder in Hawke’s Bay Airport – to provide a loan to support cash flow.

“This ensures the terminal redevelopment can proceed, protecting up to 200 jobs including those of contractors already working on the project. As a Government we support investments that will help our regions and local economies to continue their recovery and to rebuild.”

The loan is expected to be repaid within two years and is considered fiscally neutral.

There will be no impact on net core Crown debt over the period of the loan, and the capital expenditure associated with the appropriation will not impact the COVID-19 Response and Recovery Fund.

But $4.5 million is small change to the generous Jones.

Wearing his Regional Economic Development hat, he announced the Provincial Growth Fund is providing up to $19.5 million to boost innovative primary sector businesses and create training and job opportunities for Northland locals through the construction of an innovation and enterprise park at Ngawha.

The  investment will go towards finalising pre-construction work at the site near Kaikohe and building infrastructure and services such as earthworks, roading, water and power.

“The construction of the Ngawha Innovation and Enterprise Park will be a major infrastructure project for the region which could change the lives of many locals in an area of high economic deprivation,” Shane Jones says.

When stage 1 of the park is up and running it is expected to provide around 250 new full-time jobs and 50 training roles a year. These numbers are expected to grow to around 500 as further development takes place.

The park, to be located on a 204ha former dairy farm, aims to bring together complementary businesses which can scale up manufacturing high-value primary sector products and invest in research and development.

“Like-minded, innovative businesses will create economies of scale through co-location at the park and benefit from new infrastructure and low energy costs. There are plans for the park to include an innovation and education centre to train and develop locals, and on-site labs,” Shane Jones said.

Building could start on the park this year, creating around 150 construction jobs.

Potential park tenants include businesses in food manufacturing, bioenergy, horticulture, research and development, and trades training for the production of low-cost, pre-fabricated timber social housing.

“This park, which has the backing of stakeholders including local iwi will be a game-changer for Kaikohe which has struggled to attract private investment in the past due to its relative distance, lack of infrastructure and trained workforce,” Shane Jones said.

At Point of Order we often wonder if Jones ever wonders why the factors that discourage private investors should be of no relevance to the people who decide on the prudence of a state investment.

Far North Holdings, the commercial arm of the Far North District Council, will receive the funding. The PGF provided $897,000 to Far North Holdings towards a business case for the park in 2019.

Release

13 JULY 2020

District Court Judge appointed

Stephen Clark, Māori Land Court Judge of Hamilton has been appointed as a District Court Judge with jury jurisdiction to be based in Hamilton, Attorney-General David Parker announced today.

Hon David Parker

Attorney-General

Release

13 JULY 2020

Hawke’s Bay Airport agreement protects jobs, safeguards terminal development

The Crown will provide a loan to Hawke’s Bay Airport to ensure it can trade through COVID-19 economic impacts, support the region’s recovery and protect up to 200 jobs.

Rt Hon Winston Peters Hon Grant Robertson

Deputy Prime Minister

Finance

State Owned Enterprises

Release

13 JULY 2020

Government backs Northland innovation and enterprise park

The Provincial Growth Fund is providing up to $19.5 million to boost innovative primary sector businesses and create training and job opportunities for Northland locals through the construction of an innovation and enterprise park at Ngawha, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today.

Hon Shane Jones

Regional Economic Development