An upgrade for Ohakea, a new governance board for Stats NZ and an end (here’s hoping) to CAA bullying

 While the poll-axed Nats were feverishly engaged in leadership manoeuvres, the Government was spending, appointing and telling us about bullying – in one state agency, at least.

The biggest sum among the day’s announcements involved the Coalition Government’s approval of a business case for $206 million in upgrades to critical infrastructure at Royal New Zealand Air Force Base Ohakea.

Defence Minister Ron Mark said the investment, to be made in three phases over five years, is part of the grandly named “Defence Estate Regeneration Programme”.

But there’s a strong hint not all of the $206m is a done deal – Cabinet approval will be sought for final project and funding arrangements for each phase.

Deeper down in the statement was mention of Budget 2020 providing $676.5 million of additional Defence Force operating funding and the announcement that $69.9 million (a not immodest sum) is planned for investment into the Defence Estate. Continue reading “An upgrade for Ohakea, a new governance board for Stats NZ and an end (here’s hoping) to CAA bullying”

We are getting regular updates on Covid-19 cases and deaths – but we must wait until August for data on total deaths in March

Questions have been raised about how many people are dying of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom.

They stem from the way coronavirus deaths are counted in the UK – primarily who is counted and when.

The “official” death toll, according to the data presented by the UK government every day in Downing Street, was 26,097 deaths at 5pm 28 April.

Until the previous day, this figure focused solely on people who have died in hospital, according to an analysis in The Guardian.

But an additional 3,811 deaths in care homes and the community had been included.

Deaths in all settings where a positive Covid-19 test had been recorded by Public Health England henceforth would be reflected in the figures each day, according to the government.

But The Guardian was concerned that …

Figures recorded by the Office for National Statistics and the Care Quality Commission show at least 4,996 deaths were recorded in care homes in the two weeks to 24 April – a toll which is clearly at odds with the government’s latest figures, as many of the deceased will not have been tested. In addition to this, the key government figure is lagging, as it can take days or weeks for some deaths to be counted. Clearly this widely circulated figure, even when deaths in the community are included, is an undercount.

It will take weeks to get to a proper sense of how many people have died.

The final official figure will come from the statistical agencies of the four nations,  based on the number of death certificates which mention Covid-19.

The number of Covid-19 fatalities exceeded 20,000 in England and Wales on 15 April, but the official figure released by the government only passed 20,000 on 25 April.

We now know that as of 17 April the true total number of deaths was 55% higher than the official figure from the Department of Health and Social Care in England and Wales.

Point of Order asked Stats NZ if it – or any other agency in this country – gathered and published statistics which record weekly deaths and the causes of those deaths?

The answer:

Stats NZ publishes monthly deaths but March data won’t be available until August because of the lag in having it sent to us.

The data is supplied to us by the Department of Internal Affairs –

Ministry of Health publish cause of death data. They normally have a lag of a couple of years while some cause of death data is finalised; however, Covid-19 related deaths are published on the government Covid-19 page –  

The latest data at time of writing showed –

As at 9.00 am, 3 May 2020
Total Change in last 24 hours
Number of confirmed cases in New Zealand 1,136 2
Number of probable cases 351 0
Number of confirmed and probable cases 1,487 2
Number of cases currently in hospital 8 3
Number of recovered cases 1,266 3
Number of deaths 20 0




Stats NZ says race is a biological indicator – but we can choose our ethnicity

While Point of Order was posting news of self-identification being extrended to race in British academic circles, portending a bizarre world in which black can be white and white can be black, Stats NZ was distinguishing between race and ethnicity.

Statistics about ethnicity give information by the ethnic groups that people identify with or feel they belong to, the department explained.

Ethnicity is a measure of cultural affiliation. It is not a measure of race, ancestry, nationality, or citizenship. Ethnicity is self perceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group.

An ethnic group is made up of people who have some or all of the following characteristics:

    • a common proper name
    • one or more elements of common culture, for example religion, customs, or language
    • unique community of interests, feelings, and actions
    • a shared sense of common origins or ancestry, and
    • a common geographic origin.

Ethnicity should not be confused with other related terms, Stats NZ insists:
Continue reading “Stats NZ says race is a biological indicator – but we can choose our ethnicity”

James Shaw’s number should be up with the Stats portfolio and (based on a Green colleague’s advice) a woman should take over

James Shaw must go and be replaced as Minister of Statistics by a woman.

Julie Anne Genter, Shaw’s Green Party and ministerial colleague, hasn’t said so. But here at Point of Order we are confident she would agree.

The case for a woman taking over as Minister of Statistics is raised by a combination of the mismanaged 2018 census and by Genter’s championing of female leadership.

One analysis of the Stats NZ fiasco, by David Williams at Newsroom, says the census was bungled

“ … because of bad leadership, poor oversight, flawed decisions, and a misplaced hope that it’d turn out OK.” Continue reading “James Shaw’s number should be up with the Stats portfolio and (based on a Green colleague’s advice) a woman should take over”

Stats NZ – struggling with its census data – is aiming higher and will measure our spiritual well-being

The public service has gone all touchy-feely as it gets to grips with the well-being message from the PM and her government.  Or maybe it simply wants us to think it has gone all touchy-feely.

This includes the number-crunching Government Statistician, whose agency is struggling to crunch the latest census data, and – good grief! – the bosses of The Treasury, an outfit we thought was hard-nosed about things like government spending and fiscal rigour.

What’s more, as we were drafting this post, ACC Minister Iain Lees-Galloway announced the Government was able to improve the well-being of older working New Zealanders and those working overseas with the passing of the Accident Compensation Amendment Bill.

“The legislation passed last night helps ensure we improve the well-being of New Zealanders by addressing a number of gaps and technical issues in the ACC scheme to help keep the system fair, transparent and accessible for all claimants,” says Iain Lees-Galloway.

The changes are outlined in his press statement,

Meanwhile Stats NZ – still struggling to publish hard census data – has set about trying to measure things such as our spiritual health (which, in the case of the writer of this post, is strongly linked to gin-and-tonic consumption).

We suspect the statisticians have other forms of spiritual health in mind as they pump resources into their well-being measures, presumably diverting them from the less consequential task of producing census results.

Michael Reddell, at Croaking Cassandra, is appropriately scornful: 

The Government Statistician can’t manage a census competently, and won’t tell us (let alone MPs) just how bad the situation is (about a census taken more than a year ago), but today – aiding and abetting the government’s Wellbeing Budget branding – she was out with the final list of indicators to be published in this brave new world.   It goes under the label “Indicators Aotearoa”, and in addition to not being able to run a census, she seems –  in common with many public servants –  to have forgotten the name of the country: New Zealand.

Among the list of indicators –  many of which are already published (and thus you wonder what value there is in one set of bureaucrats prioritising them and putting them in one place) –  was this snippet.


I don’t have too much problem with suicide rates.  They are reasonably hard and somewhat meaningful data (but comparisons across time and across countries are hard).

But the other three made almost no sense.

Take that “spiritual health” indicator –  well, there is no indicator yet, but an aspiration to have one.  Real resources are being wasted on this stuff.    Who knows what business it is of the government to be measuring “spiritual health”, whatever it means?  And, strangely, it appears that the Government Statistician believes that only the “spiritual health” of Maori people (or was that “Maori society”?) matters.  Are we back in taniwha territory again…?

Reddell sent us to look at the Stats website which explains:

Indicators Aotearoa New Zealand is being developed by Stats NZ as a source of measures for New Zealand’s well-being. The set of indicators will go beyond economic measures, such as gross domestic product (GDP), to include well-being and sustainable development.

The well-being indicators will build on international best practice, and will be tailored to New Zealand.

This work supports many cross-government initiatives and international reporting requirements, including the Treasury’s Living Standards Framework and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Indicators Aotearoa New Zealand will be delivered by Stats NZ and will support the government’s ambition to use a well-being approach to strategic decision-making.

Indicators for which we have information will be populated with data when we release our website in late June 2019. 

The selection of indicators to be reported on from June this year (in an attempt “to understand the most important aspects of well-being for New Zealanders”) significantly was not driven by the availability of data.

The initial set of indicators includes gaps in data, ranging from a complete absence of data to limitations on the ability to break information down to useful and meaningful levels for different communities.

Stats NZ is working with stakeholders to prioritise understanding data gaps and how they can be addressed. We’re feeding this information back to Government for their consideration.

The indicators signed off by the Government Statistician include:

Engagement in cultural activities; inter-generational transfer of knowledge; te reo Māori speakers

Health equity; health expectancy; mental health status (psychological distress); amendable mortality; self-reported health status; spiritual health; suicide

Language development and retention; sense of belonging

Knowledge and skills
Core competencies (non-cognitive skills); early childhood education (ECE) participation; educational attainment; inequality of educational outcomes; literacy, numeracy, and science skills of 15-year-olds

Active stewardship of land

Leisure and personal time; satisfaction with leisure time

Domestic violence; experience of discrimination; harm against children; injury prevalence; perceptions of safety/feelings of safety; victimisation

Social connections
Contact with family and friends; loneliness; social support

Subjective well-being
Ability to be yourself; experienced well-being; hope for the future; life satisfaction; locus of control; sense of purpose, whānau well-being

Human capital
Health expectancy; literacy, numeracy and science skills of 15-year-olds; te reo Māori speakers

Social capital
Generalised trust; institutional trust; volunteering

The Treasury’s contribution to the push for compassion comes from the development of its Living Standards Framework (LSF) to help it advise governments about how the policy trade-offs they make are likely to affect everyone’s living standards.

The LSF looks across the human, social, natural and financial/physical aspects of those things that affect our well-being – the ‘four capitals’. It is a tool that emphasises the diversity of outcomes meaningful for New Zealanders, and helps the Treasury to analyse, measure and compare those outcomes through a wide and evolving set of indicators.

Read more about the Treasury’s approach to living standards here: The Treasury Approach to the Living Standards Framework

But hey – Eric Crampton, on the Offsetting Behaviour blog, tells us what else they are up to.

He draws attention to an invitation to pay a $35 registration fee for an event at Treasury,  which is helping to promote a small business involving a former Treasury staffer by hosting the event and encouraging folks to buy its products.

We are teased to attending by a flyer which is headed:

Imagine surprising Aotearoa with a strain of compassion so delightful that it re-wires our collective consciousness!  

Come and join us in our social lab

The Treasury promoters are Fiona Ross, The Treasury Chief Operating Officer, David Dougherty, The Treasury Manager Strategy and Performance, and “24 curious and creative people at The Treasury” who have been “experimenting the social lab”.

They have

 … created a “compassion starter culture” – a network of people who want to create a more compassionate culture in Aotearoa, starting where we are – in our workplaces.

We’ve been playing and rapidly prototyping with the Heartwork Wellbeing Card Game* – now available publicly.

We know that the intention for what we want to create has a huge power.

We don’t have all the answers. And we can’t do this mahi alone.

So we’d like to invite you into this social lab.

So we can grow an even more beautiful, and more resilient strain together.
We’ll share what we’re learning while we’re still metabolising.

Fiona Ross will tell attendees about what she’s been learning from her experiments with the Heartwork cards in her work as Chief Operating Officer of the Treasury.

We don’t know much about Heartwork cards.

We do know a full house (three of a kind with a pair) beats a flush in a poker game.

And we are sure too many New Zealanders are not as flush as they would like to  be.

We must wait to see how their lot will be improved by Treasury’s fascination with compassion and Heartwork cards.