BRYCE EDWARDS’ Political Roundup: National is failing to inspire voters

DR BRYCE EDWARDS writes – 

Labour’s Hamilton West by-election loss at the weekend has been widely described as a disaster for the party, illustrating just how much the tide has turned on the Government.
 
But what did the by-election result say about the state of the National Party? Tama Potaka’s win was a vote of confidence in him as a candidate and for the party as a whole. Winning 46 per cent of the vote was a strong performance, easily beating the Labour candidate’s 30 per cent support.
 
National failed to inspire voters in Hamilton West
 
However, the extremely low voter turnout really does need to be considered when evaluating National’s success. According to the Electoral Commission, the eligible voting population in Hamilton West is about 57,211. Therefore, 14,392 votes is a turnout of only about 25 per cent. (Some news reports suggest a higher turnout figure, but they’re failing to include the number of eligible voters in Hamilton West who weren’t enrolled.)

Astonishing government gaffes—but will they influence the Hamilton West by-election outcome?

Government bloopers  have dominated the  headlines over the  past week: yet do  they foretell the  end of the Ardern  government? Or, for that matter, the  result of the Hamilton by-election on Saturday.

The Prime Minister, deftly dancing  on the head of  a pin  over the  backdown on  the 3 Waters “mistake”,  was a  sight to behold. Just as comical was  the  performance  of  Broadcasting  Minister Willie Jackson on TVNZ’s Q+A which won for itself  the headline  (in the NZ Herald): “Jackson’s bizarre interview a  trainwreck”.

These are only symptomatic of a  government standing above a precipice almost demanding to be pushed over it.

Yet whether the electors of Hamilton  West will give it the first shove is  far from clear.

Certainly the National leader Christopher Luxon, when he  was campaigning there last week, got no sense of a  landslide coming in his direction.