BRIAN EASTON: Census 2023 – why I take the population census seriously

• Brian Easton writes –

The low coverage of the 2018 Population Census and Dwellings has generated all sorts of difficulties. You are told that census results are vital for allocating electoral seats and  education and health funding. That is absolutely true but social researchers use its findings for many other purposes. For instance, it has a comprehensive survey of our housing stock and of people’s internal migration while it also used to guide the disability survey. Its detailed age and gender structure is vital for national and regional population projections.

(It may be especially useful for the reconstruction arising from Cyclone Gabrielle, especially for housing on the margins and isolated. Censuses are very good for dealing with such groups.)

Lindsay Mitchell on joining the right dots and on the sobering outlook for people who will be lifetime beneficiaries

THE Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister has been braying about the Government lifting “about 66,000 kids out of poverty in the past few years …” 

In its latest annual report the Ministry for Social Development takes pride in its focus on getting people jobs resulting in 226,836 clients moving off benefit into work in the last two years (“our highest recorded result”).

But social commentator LINDSAY MITCHELL points out that 415,266 benefits were granted in the past two years, when more benefits were granted than cancelled.  She writes: –  

• Our leaders need to join the right dots

The Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister says:

“We’ve lifted about 66,000 kids out of poverty in the past few years …”

What he neglects to add is they have also consigned about 37,000 more to life on a benefit bringing the total to over 209,000.

Whoa there, before saluting the Ardern government for keeping so many people in work

Stats  NZ  figures  this  week indicated the  country’s  unemployment  was  3.3%  of  the  workforce  in the  June quarter, or 0.1% less  than in the  March  quarter.

So  should we give  three  cheers to the Ardern  government for sustaining employment at   such  a  high  level    through  the  Covid  pandemic?

Given  how wages have increased – for  example,  in the manufacturing sector by  8%  over the  past year – surely  you have to concede  the  economy  is  ticking along very nicely under  this  government?

First, let’s check out  the  number  drawing  benefits.

In  March  there  were 278,238  people  drawing  a  main benefit.  That’s 11.1% of  the  working  age  population.

Recovering our relationships with China, ASEAN and Samoa while grappling with climate change and protecting the kauri

Buzz from the Beehive

New Zealand’s relationships with China, the ASEAN countries and Samoa were embraced by speeches and announcements that flowed from the Beehive after Disarmament Minister Phil Twyford had delivered his Statement to the 2022 Review Conference for the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Trade Minister Damien O’Connor addressed the China Business Summit, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departed for the Indo-Pacific region for a programme of talks on security and economic issues, and the PM announced the launch of a new climate change partnership with Samoa and confirmed support for the rebuild of the capital’s main market.

The PM’s announcements were accompanied by $15 million to support Samoa’s response to climate change and $12 million toward the rebuild of the Savalalo Market in Apia

Ministers with a domestic focus meanwhile were getting on with telling us about their legislative and regulatory agendas and other programmes.

A major item was the launch today of New Zealand’s first National Adaptation Plan, designed to ensure communities have the information and support they need to prepare for the impacts of climate change.

But our lives will also be affected – for better or worse – by:-

Govt is chuffed as consultations begin on income insurance scheme – but the Nats point out it’s a new tax

A double dose of Covid announcements from The Beehive – regarding rapid antigen tests and booster shots – was accompanied by two spending decisions to help specific groups,  arts and culture and Pacific people, in the name of the recovery from Covid.

There have been announcements regarding the country’s economic wellbeing, one to welcome news that unemployment has fallen to record low levels, the other to tell of a programme to lift Southland’s economic performance.  The Southland Just Transition Work Plan can be downloaded from the Southland Just Transition website: https://southlandjusttransition.nz/

And there has been an announcement to remind us what day it is.  It’s World Wetlands Day today.  Hurrah.

Then there has been news of consultations beginning on an income insurance scheme.  This perhaps belongs among the economic announcements but also qualifies as a “labour market” initiative – and a big one.

But is it a good one?

Not according to the Nats, who are hollering about the tax-gathering and profit-draining aspect of the scheme.   

We can be cheered by low unemployment rather than be vexed by rising CPI – but the data need a closer look

Taxpayers are dishing out $633,000 to help a venture described as “a long-running penguin rehab facility which has been hard hit by the tourism downturn” and $2.8 million to restore native forest habitats in the Catlins.

The Jobs for Nature funding for Otago’s Penguin Place and The Hokonui Rūnanga Catlins Biodiversity Project was announced yesterday by Conservation Minister Kiri Allan.

Some readers might wonder about the prudence of this sort of spending but Finance Minister Grant Robertson assured Newstalk ZB’s Mike Hosking that government spending is not contributing a significant amount to inflation.

“We continue to be careful with our spending but the reality is if you were to cut health spending that doesn’t change the price of petrol. We have got to be pretty careful of not cutting our nose to spite our face.

“Obviously we are prudent with what we do but there are a lot of things we do need to be investing into in New Zealand. We have got to keep doing those.”

The penguins should be grateful their wellbeing is regarded as an essential investment.

Two perspectives on the NZ economy – the business outlook (grim) and Robertson’s emphasis on resilience (ebullient)

Listen  to  economists, and  you  will hear  that New Zealand is ploughing through rough  waters. Inflation expectations  are soaring, business  confidence   is  falling, investment intentions   are  down.

In fact, the  ANZ  Business  Outlook data  for  November record declines in all forward-looking activity indicators except employment intentions.  A net 9% of firms expect lower profits ahead.

This is likely related to extreme cost pressures, with a net 89 % of  firms   reporting   higher  costs.

If you want an antidote to this pessimism, listen  to  Finance Minister  Grant  Robertson in Parliament – the  story he tells is very  different.

Answering  a  “patsy” from Mana  MP Barbara Edmonds,  Robertson  celebrated the  resilience of  the  NZ  economy  which – he  said – had been demonstrated by last week’s Statistics New Zealand job figures for the September 2021 quarter.

The data showed the unemployment rate fell from 4%  in June to a record-equalling low of 3.4% in the September quarter, last recorded in December 2007.

Whoopee.

The people represented by Poto Williams loom large in consultations on Police’s Tactical Response Model

Latest from the Beehive

Poto Williams  –  a few months ago – was telling us who had influenced her refusal to support the general arming of police.

At that time, a man who admitted murdering Constable Matthew Hunt during a routine traffic stop was on trial.  He was denying the attempted murder of a second officer.

A Hamilton officer had been injured by a firearm during a routine traffic check earlier that  month, police in Hamilton and Auckland had been confronted by armed offenders, and Police Association president Chris Cahill was calling for more frontline police to be armed because of a growing number of criminals carrying guns.

Poto Williams’ reason for sticking to her guns (so to speak) and for resisting any clamour for the general arming of the police?

The Māori and Pacific Island communities she represents did not want it, she insisted.

Williams told Newstalk ZB’s Mike Yardley she supported police officers being armed when they needed to be, but did not think it should extend to the permanent arming of the force.

This was because she had listened to overwhelming feedback from the Māori, Pacific Island and South Auckland communities who didn’t want it.

The communities she represented – Māori and Pacific – who were telling her “loud and clear” that the general arming of police and the Armed Response Teams (ARTs) were a real concern to them and had been distressed to learn armed police were routinely patrolling their streets, she said.

Child poverty group presses for more govt help as demand for benefits and food grants surges

So   how  is  the  team  of  five  million  looking after  its   latest  encounter  with  Covid-19  and  its  more  transmissible  Delta  strain?

The  majority    will  be  relieved  to  have  escaped  its  clutches.

On  the  other  side  of the  ledger,  the virus  has  had  a powerful  impact  on  lower-  income  groups.

One  lobby  group,  noting the current lockdown triggered the largest weekly increase in numbers of people receiving benefits since the first lockdown last year, says the government isn’t doing enough to help affected families.

The latest MSD reporting also shows food grant numbers near the end of August were double what they were at the same time last year, when Auckland was in a level 3 lockdown.

NZ economy must remain nimble and agile, says Robertson – but then NZ went into lockdown and a hobble was applied

It   seems   an aeon  ago,  but it  was  only  last  week that  New Zealand’s wellbeing-focused government was  contemplating   how  to connect the country safely   with the rest  of the  world.   Now, achingly,  the  question is how  long the  lockdown  will last.

Whereas  last  week   the  headlines (like   this one from Newsroom) chorused “Covid success  weighs on Ardern’s  shoulders”, feelings among the  team  of  5 million might now be  deepening over why  such  a  relatively  small percentage  of  the population  is   fully  vaccinated. 

Or  why  the  elderly, in particular, are  not  queueing  for  booster  shots.

NZ,   by  some counts, has  had the slowest  vaccination rollout in the developed world.

The  PM’s  insistence that her government’s Covid response and recovery path has been dictated by the “best evidence we have about how to protect people’s lives and livelihoods’’  accordingly rings  a  bit  hollow.