In an earlier post Point of Order noted Defence Minister Ron Mark could face a difficult flight path through Cabinet when making the case for buying five Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules (each with a list price of $US100m) to replace the RNZAF’s elderly 1965 models. Demands for spending elsewhere are mounting.
Mark has engaged with Green ministers to persuade them of the broader national security interests in having an effective defence force, notably on the Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime aircraft – and now the C-130J. But whether he has succeeded in getting them onside is a moot point – and, of course, there will probably be Treasury advice to scale back the order.
Still, there are some within the defence lobby who believe the government is now close to moving ahead with the order.
The author of our original report notes that lobbying by defence suppliers is continuing.
As recently as last week Leonardo and Northrop-Grumman announced a plan to support the C-27J tactical airlifter for New Zealand and on behalf of Airbus the Royal Malaysian Air Force demonstrated the massive A400M airlifter at the Avalon air show.
Most commentaries overlook the essential requirements of a small air force, which is to minimise the risk of new equipment, or that with a limited production run, and secondly, to limit the number of types in service. Hence the focus on the C-130J which we could have had in the 1990s rather than the expensive Hercules refit which has delivered rebuilt airframes and new navaids and signals equipment but retains the now critical elderly engines and propellors of the original 1966 C-130H.
Let’s hope this government doesn’t make the mistake of some of its predecessors by not buying enough aircraft, resulting in the fleet being overworked and maintenance being delayed. End result: low aircraft availability due to maintenance issues plus high maintenance costs.
Point of Order 
Unfortunately NZ govts have a habit of acquiring the absolute minimal numbers of platforms that they can and it results in highly expensive problems further down the track. One only has to look at the Kaman SH-2G(NZ) Seasprite acquisition where only five of the aircraft were bought, the govt operational demands meant that the aircraft did not have the required maintenance because they were always flying, Kaman’s after sales service was poor, and instead of a Mid Life Upgrade, the govt had to replace them. Hence what was seen as cost saving was false economy. We were very lucky that the Australians had been very overly ambitious in their Seasprite program and it didn’t work, so after $1.7 billion, they canned it. We got 10 aircraft for a steal.
Treasury have mostly been the culprits in the cheapest option is the best, but since 2015 / 16 they have been involved in the new defence procurement process upgrade and now have an understanding of how defence procurements are different to other government procurements and also how they are used and maintained differently through their lifetime. So hopefully this will have changed the Treasury mindset and have them looking at the longer term view and the Whole Of Life of the acquisition and that defence assets are not used the same as commercial assets.
The FAMC (Future Air Mobility Capability) Project is in two parts, the first being the tactical airlifter which is the C-130H(NZ) Hercules replacement and the second being the strategic airlifter which is the B757-200 Combi replacement. The current Hercules replacement is the more important and urgent of the two, because of the time constraints on the current Hercules. At present the C-130J may be a favourite because of all the tactical airlift contenders it ticks all the boxes and is the least risky. The C295 and C-27J are not ideal for NZ because they do not have the range to fly to the Pacific Islands with a reasonable payload and in a NZ context, when deploying for HADR that is an important consideration, nor can they deploy to Australia, our closest neighbour, with a reasonable payload either. We had that problem with the Andovers.
The second part is strategic airlift component; the replacement of the B757-200 Combi. The specific requirement for that is the successful aircraft must be able to carry a reasonable payload to McMurdo from NZ, orbit McMurdo if necessary and return to NZ without the requirement of a point of safe return. Contenders are the A400M and the KHI C-2 if a strictly military airlifter is desired, which would make sense because the C-130 is no longer able to carry a significant amount of current NZDF equipment because of the interior dimensions of its cargo hold and / or the weight of the equipment. Other aircraft that maybe in the mix are the Airbus A330 MRTT, Boeing KC-46 MRTT or a converted Boeing 767. The NZ Govt is also interested in an A2A refuelling capability as well.
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