Like it or not, the Kiwis are either going into ‘Pillar 2’ – or they are going to China

Chris Trotter writes – 

Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed to make landfall on the Pacific coast of North America half-a-century before Columbus.

The colonisation of the Americas, from East to West, would have consolidated China’s global hegemony irreversibly. The cramped and fratricidal states of the European peninsula would have remained minor players in a Chinese world.

New Zealand’s geopolitical friendly fire has its limits

• Geoffrey Miller writes –

The gloves are off.

That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers.

Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand.

PRC shadow looms as the Solomons head for election

PRC and its proxies in Solomons have been preparing for these elections for a long time. A lot of money, effort and intelligence have gone into ensuring an outcome that won’t compromise Beijing’s plans.

• Cleo Paskall writes –

On April 17th the Solomon Islands, a country of around 700,000 people in the South Western Pacific, will hold elections. Until recently, elections in the Pacific Islands generally passed unnoticed in world capitals. Not anymore. That lack of attention had resulted in too many “surprises”.

The last Solomons election, in 2019, resulted in the new Prime Minister, Manasseh Sogavare, ditching the country’s longstanding relationship with Taiwan and turning to China. While there had been rumours circulating in Washington and elsewhere such a “switch” was a possibility, when Sogavare actually did it, there was a minor panic. Especially when another Pacific Islands country, Kiribati, did the same thing shortly afterwards.

Aukus or not, New Zealand’s foreign policy is being remade

• Geoffrey Miller writes – 

This could be a watershed week for New Zealand’s international relations.

Winston Peters, the foreign minister, is heading to Washington DC for a full week of meetings.

The surprisingly lengthy trip just happens to coincide with a major trilateral summit of leaders from the United States, Japan and the Philippines.

And a media report at the weekend suggested a wider Aukus ‘Pillar II’ announcement is imminent. The original Aukus partners are Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Wang Yi’s perfectly-timed, Aukus-themed visit to New Zealand

• Geoffrey Miller writes –

Timing is everything.

And from China’s perspective, this week’s visit by its foreign minister to New Zealand could be coming at just the right moment.

The visit by Wang Yi to Wellington will be his first since 2017.

Anniversaries are important to Beijing. It is more than just a happy coincidence that the visit is taking place during the tenth anniversary year of the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and New Zealand.

CHRIS TROTTER: Unintended consequences

The Basilisk’s Glare:  From his eyrie in the Kremlin, Putin’s eyes remain fixed upon the United States. Not in fear does he gaze upon the world’s unconquerable continental Goliath, but with rising hope. In President Biden’s palsied hand, the sword of freedom is loosely held. Meanwhile, from the heartland of the continent, the people America has left behind are steadily pushing their comb-over Moses towards Washington.

• Chris Trotter writes –

TWO YEARS AGO, when Vladimir Putin sent his armed forces across Ukraine’s borders, he was expecting a quick war. His generals had reassured him that the Ukrainians wouldn’t fight, Nato would sit on its hands, and his soldiers would be welcomed with kisses and flowers. Kyiv, they told him, would be his within three weeks – tops.

Putin’s advice was ill-founded in every respect. The Ukrainians did fight – and are still fighting. Nato, far from sitting on its hands, has backed the Ukrainian war effort with massive quantities of munitions and economic aid.

DON BRASH: Is an independent foreign policy really feasible?

• Don Brash writes –

A week or so ago, Helen Clark and I argued that New Zealand would be nuts to abandon the independent foreign policy which has been a characteristic of New Zealand life for most of the last 40 years, a policy which has seen us retain a close and cordial relationship with the United States and Australia on the one hand while developing an increasingly cordial relationship with China on the other.

As noted in our earlier article, this policy of being cordial to both the US and China was not only not opposed by the United States but was explicitly welcomed by the US until just a few years ago.

GEOFFREY MILLER: New Zealand’s huge shift in the Middle East

• Geoffrey Miller writes –

New Zealand is reshaping its foreign policy via the Middle East.

A decision to provide intelligence support for future US and UK airstrikes on Yemen is highly symbolic.

The Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, announced the deployment of the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) troops to support the US-led military response to the attacks on commercial shipping from Houthis in Yemen that began on November 19.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Trump

Whatever surprises New Hampshire’s voters might produce in today’s primary election, it seems increasingly likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican party’s presidential candidate in the November election.

Some blame the poor quality of the other candidates. Yet the last holdouts – Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley – have creditable records and much to commend them to their particular electorate.

So does it really come down to policy then? Depends on what you mean by policy.

Trump’s appeal rests in the consistency and virulence of his opposition to the (often-unspecified) status quo – and the reliability of his implied promise not to make the same compromises as the others (including the Republican others).

GEOFFREY MILLER: NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine

• Geoffrey Miller writes –

New Zealand’s international relations are under new management.

And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda.

As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align New Zealand more closely with the United States under his ‘Pacific Reset’ policy that he launched while serving as foreign minister under Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-New Zealand First coalition government from 2017-2020.